THE CREATOR YEAR

Just Getting Started

Happy Almost New Year War & Peaceniks. Ready to look forward? Start by looking over your shoulder…

This past November, the US election was decided in the Creator-sphere. Podcasts seem to have swayed more voters than broadcast, cable and “newspapers.” Two weeks later, a YouTuber slapped an old man around a ring for 90 minutes and broke Netflix.

My most specific prediction for 2025 is that November of 2024 will be remembered as the moment that Creator Media surpassed Corporate Media in global relevance.

[For a thorough explanation of the differences that define Creator and Corporate Media, and the source of a decent amount of my data, I implore you to read Doug Shapiro.]

Over the last five years, Big Media as an industry has grown at an average of 3%. Look around you at the chaos… this is what +3% growth looks like. On the other hand, over that same time, Creator Media grew an average of 25%.

EMARKETER data shows that digital advertising was 78% of all marketing spend in the US this year. Denstu projects that overall ad spending will increase 5.6% in 2025. Social ads will grow 8.7% and digital will grow 9.2%. A huge share of those social and digital revenues come from ad impressions generated by Creators and the communities they speak to.

Most Big Tech and many big brands now rely heavily on the Creator-sphere for content, traffic, revenue, and relevance. By the end of this decade, 20% of all media revenue will be generated directly by Creators. But right now, the most powerful platforms in history are fueled by them. Dumbfoundedly, Big Media still looks down noses at Creators. But no matter.

In 2025, the Media capital of the world will no longer be in Hollywood or New York, but rather the Creator-sphere.

73% of teens watch YouTube every day. 53% of teens watch TikTok daily. More American adults ages 18-35 get their news from social media than from TV or “legit” news sources. Half of all Americans 18-35 regularly use at least five social media platforms.

YouTubers and Insta models are not just influencers… they’re moguls. A Twitter troll is now the most powerful advisor to the President. As I mentioned in a previous 2025 prediction, Netflix’s latest show and their biggest-ever hit are both YouTubers. The President Elect’s appearance on Joe Rogan’s podcast generated more views on YouTube than the Vice President reached on Howard Stern, Stephen Colbert, and SNL combined.

Almost as many people watched pretend boxer Jake Paul fight a retired face tattoo as watched The Super Bowl.

The unwieldy matrix of the Creator-sphere generated $250 billion in revenue last year. That economy is on track to hit $600 billion per year by the end of this decade.

The biggest ad platforms on earth are Creator-driven. The great irony of the Creator-sphere is that those who’ve traditionally had least power – artists and fans – now leverage the most powerful tech companies in human history to control the media they use. So many things in 2024 demonstrated this. Next year, the growing alliance between audiences and advertisers will tilt the cultural power dynamic even harder toward the Creator-sphere.

Part of this transference is the simple gravitational law of numbers. Creators distribute 15X more content on YouTube each year than the combined US Media Complex produces as a whole. There are 6X more songs from aspiring artists on Spotify than from professional performers. Corporate Media is overwhelmed.

Most of us will never watch or listen to most Creator content. But this historic recalculation of cultural relevance is based on users’ perception and passion. Audiences now often prefer Creator-led formats more and more often over Corporate created content. Few people watch Netflix every day, but many do listen to more than one podcast daily. Premium is now entirely in the eyes, ears, and mind of the audience. Creators don’t need to have a Mr. Beast-sized following to have a valuable following. Successful Creators of all sizes now mold unique models around the specific communities that love them and their work.

Size still matters. But in the Creator-sphere, passion trumps scale.

I have 15,000 subscribers to this newsletter. I have 50,000 followers on LinkedIn. This small but mighty community fuels my business. Not because of its scale, but because you are part of the right audience for me and my business. I have built a model around your very specific interest in my writing. This is part of what confounds Corporate Media: How a ragtag band of Creator rebels and an unruly mob of self-directed fans, can take on the Media conglomerates with newsletters, and TikToks, and podcasts, and YouTube channels, and do perfectly fine without them.

When a consumer gives their time, attention, and money to one Creator, instead of the other myriad available choices, they see that Creator and their content as vital, as premium. That’s identical with advertisers, who move money from Corporate Media to Creator Content. Relationships between communities, talent, and brands are owned by the audiences, artists, and advertisers themselves in the Creator-sphere – much more than they could ever be on corporately-curated aggregators.

Generations who grew up entirely online are not going to suddenly develop a taste for mainstream or traditional media; and they won’t have to. More and more, big brands and publishers are meeting audiences on social platforms, and increasingly big-name talent are setting up their own shops and going directly to their community.

D2C formats like podcasting, newsletters, and video feeds are exploding as consumers and advertisers flee mainstream media due to fleeting trust and value there. 2024 was the year of Creator as Superstar. This is why Kylie Jenner is a billionaire, why Messi was able to change the talent game with his Apple deal, how The Sidemen got a series on Netflix, why Alex Cooper got $100 million for her podcast, why Amazon paid Mr. Beast $100 million for a game show, why Hot Ones just sold for $83 million, and why Conan O’Brien is hosting the Oscars.

2024 saw countless Brand x Creator collabs including The Gap hiring hoodie influencer Julia Huynh as a designer, McDonald’s picking Twitcher Kai Cenat as their Big Mac Taste Tester, and Netflix teaming with brand-and-TikTok-influencer Duolingo to relaunch Squid Games. The power of Duolingo’s Owl is proof that many brands now see social video platforms not as gatekeepers connecting them to audience, but rather as enablers of the brand’s own community – a powerfully efficient way to bring their business directly to their consumers.

These are the big shiny case studies. Creator media is also, simultaneously expanding into the less sexy layers of advertising. Many brands and buyers are now going directly to Creators for (wait for it) creative. Agencies like GOAT and brands like Allbirds are now using Creator-made ads on off-platform, programmatic buys in inventory on Amazon Ads, The Trade Desk, and Google, with measurable results.

“We were really surprised by the impact of influencer ads. Creative made by influencers had more credibility than traditional ads.”

- Allbirds CMO Kelly Olmstead

Beyond Hollywood, Madison Avenue, and Silicon Valley, most American businesses buy advertising only on social media and social video - in many cases because they cannot afford the costs of television or other media, but very often because social is incredibly easy to buy and obviously, provably effective. Small business stats have been record-setting the last four years. Social media, particularly YouTube, TikTok, and Instagram, have proven to be a strong backbone for marketing tiny and small businesses, and authentic entrepreneurs have proven to be excellent Creators.

TikTok’s place in American culture and business is precisely why I predict the TikTok ban will be staved off by a Presidential pardon and/or last minute capitalist handshake of some sort - likely with control of the US operations being semi-or-wholly owned by an American company. On the outside chance The Tok gets fully whacked, Zuck, Musk, Google, Microsoft, and Amazon stand ready to fill the void.

Regardless, if the TikTok Ban is enacted, the gravitational pull of the Creator-sphere is now officially too strong to contain. Especially given the incoming regulatory environment, the love between communities and Creators will continue flow even more freely across other user-centric platforms, most run by Big Tech or by some new rough beast, slouching at a coding desk, in a garage somewhere, planning to be launched.

Creators commandeered the global conversation in 2024. In 2025, I predict that the Creator-sphere will be the center of the cultural universe.

Netflix has been tapping into that sweet Creator juju for some time, but next year, they will go even further. I predict that in 2025, Netflix will announce a free, Creator-led section on the front end of their paid platform - to attract younger audiences and new advertisers.

They will not be the last nor least of traditional media to “go Creator.”

Amazon already invests heavily in influencers and you can expect that to expand in 2025. Wherever Amazon goes, Walmart will go further, and others will follow. Look for Creator-content and Retail Media to spend a lot of time together next year. Microsoft is already pushing past social and into Creators on LinkedIn. However, I believe that gaming like Minecraft and Warcraft may be Redmond’s ultimate Creator destinations.

Trends attract crowds. After the Influencer Olympics, the boxing match that put the world to sleep, and the Rogan election, Big Media, Big Ads, and Big Tech will all gather around Creators hoping that their magic will rub off. And, as Jake Paul and Taylor Swift have proved, Creators can move audiences from social to corporate media - and back.

But make no mistake, power has officially shifted. Audiences now see Creator and Corporate Media as equal choices.

In the next year, if you’re continually confounded by the Big Media meltdown, follow the crowds, the trends, and the money. Creators and Communities hold the power now. You can ride the Creator wave or get consumed by it.

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I’ll drop my full Top Ten 2025 Media Predictions next Monday. Try to contain yourself. My new podcast The Media Odyssey, drops this Thursday, and I’ll wrap 2024 with Marion Ranchet looking back at our predictions from last year!

As mentioned, this newsletter is part of a own Creator-led business. Some posts are paywalled, others are not. If you’re reading this one for free, please consider subscribing at a special holiday discount - available at this link as long as you click by midnight on January 1, 2025!

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No matter what you celebrate, please find a reason to and some people you love to celebrate with. Here’s wishing you and yours a healthy and happy year ahead.

ESHAP