DOWN UPFRONT

2025 Upfront Statistics & Predictions

Happy Monday Peaceniks. Let’s be up front.

The 2024 Ad Market was a boom – for some. Digital Media grew by 17%+. For others, 2024 Ad Business was a meh. Television grew less than 2% and shrank in 4Q. Overall, though, the ad spend trajectory in the US has been positive for more than a year. After a slow start to the holiday season, overall US ad spend finished December with a bang and started 2025 with the strongest January ad growth ever.

Then…

“Madison and Wall puts the latest forecast for non-political ad spend growth at 3.6% for 2025, a notable step down from the 4.5% growth forecast just a few months ago.

‘When we made that forecast there were a lot of risks to the downside. While everything isn’t looking as bad as we feared, a lot is and some things are looking even worse.’”

- DIGIDAY

And then…

“According to a revised forecast from MAGNA Global, the U.S. ad market is expected to grow at a slower pace in 2025 than previously estimated.

Magna’s downgrade is based on several factors, including the potential for trade wars stemming from the President’s tariffs. That risk is leading some marketers to slash their ad budgets for industries including auto and consumer packaged goods.”

- THE WRAP

The Olympics, the economy, and record-setting political campaigns lifted nearly all ad boats in 2024 (tho not all ships equally). This seemed to bode well for the US and global ad industry in 2025. And then… fears of a one-man-made recession have ad budgets pulling back like sails before an imperfect storm.

This should not surprise those who pay attention. Not too long ago, the world was mired in a year-plus Ad Recession - one I warned you about, before it took hold. Eighteen months ago, after last year’s upfront, we had new warning signs.

Last fall, when uncertainty became a pandemic, we had an indication of what might come.

By 4Q 2024, inflation had eased, and employment was high. The Fourth Quarter of the year should have been rich for ad sales. And yet, rampant ambiguity slowed growth. After the election outcome was certain, markets assumed a friendlier business environment, and spending bounced back.

But recent headlines and forecasts match the recent whispers coming from all corners of the ad biz. Many of the deciders and spenders, sellers and measurers see rough seas ahead.

With Spring officially sprung, my attention has turned to Upfront Season.

Are we headed for another Impression Recession? How much more share of the ad pie will The Big Three gobble up this year? What are the metrics that matter now? Will this year’s Upfront grow or crash? How long is this list of questions?

Let’s start with WHERE WE ARE…

YOU ARE HERE 🔺 ALSO HERE 🔻