Stream Team

Your TV Draft Picks

Happy Monday War & Peaceniks! 

This weekend was the NFL Draft; and this week are the NewFronts; and that’ll be followed by the Upfronts. To commemorate all this wagering on future prospects, I’ve collaged America’s two favorite sports - football and streaming TV - for some stats/charts I think will help you keep score in 2022; and I’ve added my own telestrating! 

Kantar released its 2Q Entertainment on Demand report last week. There are numerous key findings, not least of which is how many people in the US stream TV now. When you combine that with data from eMarketer and Magnite, which coincidentally I have done for you, the story of the evolution of TV crystallizes…

There are now 110.2 million people homes streaming TV. This is 40 million more homes (57%) than have Pay TV. There are now 87 million US homes with connected TVs - 17 million more (25%) than subscribe to an MVPD.

Is it any wonder then that Comcast and Charter joined forces last week for a JV to distribute Connected TVs and devices to take on Samsung and Roku?

All this points to one conclusion for the coming Upfront season: Streaming TV is America’s #1 pick and Pay TV is an aging veteran on a lackluster team.

When you dig into the stats, however, another story emerges: SVOD has peaked; and ad-supported streaming is the hot young rookie.

Premium paid streaming has plateaued - granted, at 95.7% of US HH usage it’s a ubiquitously used product. But usage is declining, if even slightly. After two straight years of massive growth, SVOD is now simply a divisional share war between the big paid players - with the new entrants (Disney+, HBOMax and Paramount+) stealing fans from the more established teams (Netflix and Prime).

Meanwhile with 23% growth of AVOD and 92% growth in the last year in FAST, the hottest club in town is the free or lower-cost stream with ads.

But even within the Mad Men conference, things are changing. 

Hulu has been the dynasty franchise in AVOD for some time. And their dominance is still relatively unthreatened. (Having a decade head start doesn’t hurt.) BUT… massive growth from latecomer expansion teams seems to indicate a challenge this season for the ad-supported ring. 

Considering the 92% of growth FAST has put on the board in the past year, it’s clearly the conference to watch, especially given the growth of the biggest teams in the space in the second quarter. 

But with SVOD showing its age, ad-supported streaming coming on faster than a 40-yard dash, and CTV now dominating the living room like a third down blitz; the big questions for the 2022 season are:

• WHY DID NETFLIX WAIT SO LONG TO ENTER THE AD SALES DRAFT? They had these numbers before Kantar did. Makes one question their game day decisions.

• Ditto Comcast and Charter. CTV homes surpassed Pay TV homes a few seasons ago. Why wait so long? And why now?

• And, with just 10% of all video ad spend on CTV in 2021, you have to ask yourself, do the agencies not read the scouting reports? Do they not see the scores? Will they finally make the move this Upfront and invest in the young ad-supported talent of AVOD and FAST?

That’s your pregame! It’s time for kickoff. 

Tomorrow at 9a ET, I’ll be doing some color commentary at Samsung’s NewFront event, presenting some of these stats and a whole slew more. You can livestream it here.

I promise, it’ll move faster than the NFL draft. 

Enjoy the week!

ESHAP