Happy Sunday War & Peaceniks! Did you miss me? Did you even notice I was gone? Who cares? I’m back and ready for Spring!
Last Spring I chided advertisers that they were underspending on CTV, pushing them to dedicate at least 40% of their TV budgets on connected televisions and TV streaming - not because I said so, but because every single piece of data showed that CTV was the destination all audiences were headed.
This spring…
“Advertisers expect 40% of their 2023 upfront buys to be on connected TV/streaming platforms.”
I spent last week in Austin at SXSW, meeting with big brains, eating great food and doing my darnedest to forecast what 2023 will bring. I love SXSW because it always gives me a great cultural view of the year ahead. After my presentation, I was asked (either seriously or ironically, I’m not sure) “how do you predict what will happen in Media?”
To be clear: No one can predict the future of Media. Especially right now.
What we can do is read all the available data, observe the actions of entities in our ecosystem, calculate the natural trajectory of those entities, and project the general direction where it’s all headed.
Last Spring, as the industry was buying their TV time for right now, all the data we had showed that the audience stampede to streaming was picking up speed, while audiences on OG TV were shrinking and getting less valuable daily. So, a forecast of 40% for CTV seemed obvious, even necessary. Today, 40% of TV viewing in the US is on streaming. This Spring, a year later, the ad biz plans to catch up. Or so they think.
The big question as this Spring begins: What does the data and observable behavior say now, about where we’ll be a year from now? What should we do about that?
I read data every day. I try to find data that contradicts other data. I tend to stay away from most “analysis,” not because it’s wrong, but because I don’t want to be distracted from what the numbers themselves are saying.
A varied array of datasets creates a narrative. It tells a story. The data from 2022, combined with the observable actions of our most notable planets since, tell a fascinating and clear story about the current trajectory of the Media Universe. If you follow that trajectory, you can get a good general sense of where we’re likely to be this time next Spring.
On March 20, I gave a zoom webinar where I encored my SXSW speech (including parts I didn’t have time for in Austin).
To celebrate Spring, I’m trying something entirely new…
At the urging of readers and for the first time ever, I’m posting ALL the slides from my presentation, below, for you to download and do with what you will.
(If you see the link below, thanks so much for paying for my newsletter! It makes my mom proud. If you do NOT, please consider trying the FREE TRIAL downloading the slides and then cancelling. Which will make my mom sad, but you’ll still have the slides.)
I hope some of you find them useful. I also hope that some will look through it, digest the data, and reach out with any/all questions or contradictions you have - in the comments or via email.
Enjoy Spring!
ESHAP
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