Morning War & Peaceniks! I didn’t plan to post today, but the Media Universe keeps pulling me back in.
The two largest acquisitions in gaming history have happened, within a Hanukkah of each other. Something tells me we're not even close to the end of the mega deals of 2022.
While the Microsoft/Activision consumption has yet to be consummated (I am certain the EU & FTC will have a LOT to say about that purchase before it closes), I have remapped the Media Universe to accommodate for other engagements still at the alter (DiscoBros, Amazon/MGM).
So, a new ESHAP Media Universe Map is below - don't get used to it, cuz it's bound to change... soon.
What are the next shoes to drop? Some fresh hot takes:
After flying high for much of 2021, Roblox' valuation has taken a hit of late. They are a stellar example of where the #metaverse is headed, and everyone is obsessed with the metaverse rn. Sony (who must be reeling after the announcement yesterday), Meta (who literally changed its name to be a #web3 cool kid), and especially ready players one and two, Nintendo and Apple, must be looking at them as a strategic and relatively inexpensive counter attack.
Unity is a potential strategic bargain. While their valuation is quite strong, the Activision price was a 40% premium over their last market cap. If one of the above companies, or someone like NVIDIA offered a steep premium, it would be hard for John Riccitiello to look away. The same could be said for Niantic, Sky Mavis and ironSource.
Take Two bought Zynga out from under Activision, yet their market cap didn't really move. While they clearly like being independent, their in-house mobile and console game capabilities make them enormously attractive.
There are a slew of priced-to-move gaming firms that would make strategic sense for large companies with gaming ambitions: Square Enix, Valve, Ubisoft, and especially Skillz pop to mind.
Outside of gaming, Roku's valuation continues to slide, and if you are Microsoft, who's been itching to go on a buying spree for some time, the $69 billion for Activision could just be an appetizer; and Roku's CTV access could prove very tempting.
Play along - add your thoughts in the comments! And, as always, the high res and zoom out versions of the Media Universe Map are below the paywall.
Thanks for playing!
ESHAP
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