New Normal?

Next Gen TV Bundles

Happy Monday War & Peaceniks! It’s TV TIME!

We’ve gotten a ton of information about the state of the Media Economy in the last week – much of it mixed.

Comcast and Charter earnings both beat revenue projections, but for the first time in history, both companies lost broadband subs. Sales at both Amazon and Apple slowed, but their services sectors made up for it. Meta, Snap and YouTube’s earnings show that social and mobile are officially in an impression recession, while Roku showed that even with $1 billion in business, TV cannot live by ads alone. And, when Netflix “only losing 1 million subs in Q2” is considered “good news,” indications are incredibly strong for subscription stagflation.

A LOT of focus was shone on Peacock flatlining subs and losing tons of money. But if that was your takeaway from Comcast’s earnings last week, you’re paying attention to the wrong numbers. Comcast (and Charter) shareholders should be FAR more concerned about their declining broadband subs – THE foundation of their cash flows. On the upside, NBCU should be high-fiving over their truly massive Upfront, and what it indicates for the future of their TV biz.

Last week news broke that NBCU closed a best-ever $7 billion Upfront, and Disney closed a record breaking $9 billion upfront. In NBCU’s case it was a high single-digit percentage growth, driven in large part by a 100% growth on Peacock. Disney’s haul was driven by Disney+, ESPN+ and Hulu, which repped 40% of the deals: $3.6 billion in Upfront commitments JUST on Disney’s streaming services.

These digital-heavy deals from OG TV players like Disney and NBCU track the movement of the entire industry – where CTV spending is projected to grow by 33-38% this year, likely going over $20 billion in the US.

In fact, Disney and NBCU, the two most institutional of media companies are now setting some of the most important trends in modern TV…