My Crystal Balls!

11 Predictions for 2023

Happy Holidays & Peaceniks! Ready for 2022 to be over? Me too!

It’s the end of a crazy year, and the perfect time to put the chaos of 2022 to bed, and look forward… to the chaos of 2023. So it’s ALSO time to unwrap my (very) last Map of the Media Universe in 2022:

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And that must mean it’s also time for me to slide down the chimney to deliver my…

ESHAP Top 11 Predictions for Media for 2023!

1. Apple at square One. Apple will use 2023 to pivot, hard, to Ads, Sports, Music and most urgently, their big Bundle: Apple One. They will get NFL Sunday Ticket. They will add ads to their Music, and their Super Bowl Half Time Show to declare all-out war on Spotify. Most importantly for the rest of Media and Tech, Apple will use these tools (along with Arcade and Gaming, TV+, MLB, MLS, News, fitness, free offers with your new iPhone) to reboot Apple One into a subscription flywheel like Prime is for Amazon.

2. The Microsoft Couch. We won’t know until next summer if Microsoft gets to acquire Activision. Either way, in 2023 CEO Satya Nadella will focus intensely on expanding Microsoft’s share of the living room. Between Minecraft, LinkedIn, XBox and GamePass, AND Netflix’s new ad platform; in 2023 Microsoft will evolve into an advertising powerhouse. While Activision will be a distraction next year, look for Nadella to continue to be in a buying mood, targeting even more share of the CTV screen, and an entrance to the Audio market. For this reason and more, especially watch for a deepening of Microsoft’s partnership with Netflix in 2023.

3. Alphabet’s Soup. Alphabet is facing regulatory and legal actions on numerous continents. This exposes their over-dependency on both ads and duopolies. Google TV is also the fastest growing CTV operating system on the planet. 2023 will be the year of CTV for many players, but especially for Google, who will use next year (and the missteps of rivals) to accelerate their takeover of the segment. Look for big deals with TV manufacturers, and even a Google-branded CTV. In Music, YouTube already beats Spotify in many markets, and is a close second for usage around the world. Listen up for Alphabet to amp up their battle for eardrums in 2023, with an increased investment in Audio and big push into Music subscriptions bundled with YouTube TV.

4. Amazon: The Home Game! Prime is the best subscription package in Media and Tech. Look for Amazon to expand Prime in 2023; offering more Gaming; more Audio (via Wondery, Audible and Amazon Music); more TV (especially more LIVE and Sports like Thursday Night Football); and more bundled offers with their major new priority FireTV. These will all enable Amazon to amp up its fast growing ad platform next year, into a true Facebook replacement.

5. 2023 = Web 2.5. Minecraft is not just a game platform, it is an open-source marketplace, with its own economy that generates $400 million per year in revenue, where users of all ages play, collaborate, communicate and socialize, for hours and hours at a time. Live Service games like Minecraft, and Roblox, Fortnite, PUBG, Among Us and more are far more than just games. They are the next generation of Social Media, happening right now. Next year we will see these platforms begin to evolve into what they already are, the stepping stone to the next version of the web. They will also realize the benefit of that evolution - ad dollars. Meta and Web2 Social Media platforms are crumbling because their model depended too heavily on fraud and the invasion of privacy. Gaming has built the replacement, and billions of users prove it. 2023 is the year we take a major step over the rainbow into Web2.5 on the way to Web3. Look for major entertainment events on these platforms next year to expand the community and demonstrate what comes next.

6. Spotify’s new Playlist. Apple, Amazon, and Google, oh my! The biggest companies on earth have their sites set on Spotify. With major competish from Big Tech Death Stars, what’s the largest Audio player on the planet do? Great question. Spotify has never been profitable. I don’t think they’ll break that streak this year. With an ad recession in full swing, and big guns pointed its way, Spotify needs to do something in the year ahead. Look for more partnerships like their with Hulu. Look for an expansion into social media for Music fans on the Spotify app.

7. CTV Wars. Google TV may be the fastest growing CTV operating system in the industry, but it is part of a very crowded field. Amazon wants Fire to be the iOS of TVs. Roku bigly dominates streaming in the US. Samsung sells more CTVs than anyone. Comcast and Charter have Xumo and Sky Glass. Ten years ago, two players - Google and Apple - emerged as the duopoly of smart phone platforms. With Amazon fully transitioned from dongle to CTV, Google facing enormous headwinds in other sectors, Roku emerging from a rough 2022 with new leadership, and Comcast entering the space, the ultimate battle for CTV share commences, in earnest, in 2023. There will be (figurative) blood.

8. Global Battle Royale, wit Cheese. Gaming has been a pitched Battle Royale for years, now Media’s largest sector, and poised for enormous growth the rest of the decade. Which is why Amazon, Apple, and YouTube will make major moves into Gaming next year, to face off more squarely with Microsoft, Sony, Nintendo and Tencent.

9. Bundles of Oy! Apple One; The Disney Bundle; Walmart and Paramount+; and the OG Amazon Prime. Look for more packaging and promotions that cross promote and bundle services next year, all with the aim of expanding audiences, lowering costs of acquisition, and reducing churn. 2023 will be the year of the Bundle, due in some part to partnerships, and in larger part to prediction #11.

10. Generation A++. We’ve heard about Millennials. We’ve been educated about Gen Z. 2023 will be the year of Gen A. Get ready for think pieces and pitches from consultants on precisely what to do with Generation A (aka Generation Edge aka Generation Alpha). For good reason. Gen A start turning 14 next year, and they will dominate decision making for media and tech purchase in most multi-generation homes for the next decade. TV, Audio, Social Media and gaming, if there is a Gen A in the home, chances are they are influencing major Media purchasing.

11. This One Goes To 11! Due to the chaos of 2022, there are major bargains to be had across Media and Tech. Because of everything I wrote above, small companies will be looking for shelter; old companies will be looking for change; and Death Stars will be looking for new ways to dominate. Ergo, 2023 will be a BIG year big fish to swallow little, and mid-sized fish to pair off.

I could make at least a dozen more predictions for 2023. And I will - today LIVE at 4:30p ET/1:30p PT! Live on zoom, I’ll be going deeper into all these predictions, answering any/all questions, and taking nearly any bets.

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I hope to see you later. Either way, enjoy the week!

ESHAP