Just In, Time

Time Has Come For Big Media

Happy Tuesday War & Peaceniks. Today, timing is everything!

As I’ve been predicting for months, the long, painful ad recession is starting to end.

US ad spend was up 6.2% in July versus the year prior. That represents growth in two out of the last three months, after ten straight months of decline prior to May. And yet, as I’ve also been predicting, the advertising “come-back” is not being shared by all players proportionally.

Magna Global just readjusted all their projections for the ad economy, and generally those adjustments went up. After growth in the second quarter, and a continually stronger economy than predicted, Magna raised their expectations for 2023 ad spending to 5.2% and for 2024 to 5.6%.

However, specifically, the growth is coming exclusively from digital. In 2Q traditional ad spending dropped -4.1%. For 2023, Magna predicts traditional ad spending will be down -3.6%, and down -2.1% in 2024.

I’ve told you all year that Media buyers are now in no mood to put good money on shrinking platforms, and are all but done with spending where they cannot measure the return on their marketing investments. So even though they are spending more now than last year, the total spending still falls short of 2021 levels, and the money is most definitely not going to everyone.

In fact, it’s actually going to a select few…

2023 changed advertising forever, and traditional Media outlets are quickly becoming the skins that are being shed.

Media buyers are moving money away from non-digital platforms, where they are far more certain about the return on their marketing investment (ROMI). And, that movement is accelerating.

“U.S. legacy media ad prices continue pacing downward and are projected to be deflationary for the first time since the COVID-19-related ad recession.”

- ECI Media Management

Crucially, it’s not just declining viewership that’s pulling the rug out from under TV ads. Television itself is being devalued by the market, with “pricing set to deteriorate further into deflationary territory." I cannot stress it enough: this was already happening before the writers union shut down TV.

But, when you add the strike, mix in the subscription apocalypse, sprinkle on the rise of FAST, add a dash of Bob Iger floating ESPN and Disney for sale, knead in YouTube’s acquisition of NFL Sunday Ticket, and bake it all at 450 degrees of shitty-ass measurement… You get a perfect recipe for the death of traditional Media as we know it. Which brings us to today’s main point:

Timing Is Everything.

Look more closely at the ad recession, and the supposed “ad come back.”