AY-YO-AI

AI's Unsexy Side

Happy Monday Peaceniks. Let’s get unsexy…

This summer, I presented my thesis on the current state of the AI market:

“AI is an incredibly powerful and valuable technology. We have not even begun to plumb the breadth of its possibilities. And yet, every market indicator now indicates that currently, AI is in a bubble.”

That treatise included myriad data supporting my position, including the outlandish valuation of OpenAI in the face of billions in burning cash, chaotic governance, and dozens of fleeing senior executives; the spurious business models of a gaggle of AI start-ups; and the wild valuation fluctuation of NVIDIA - all fanned by the oblivious speculation of know-nothing investors and analysts.

That same month, I actually entered a live debate on the topic of an AI Bubble- where I presented the affirmative AI Bubble position against three very knowledgeable competitors who all presented the counter argument that AI was not presently in a bubble. I won.

One year ago, leading up to CES, I predicted that in 2024, we would be inundated in the year ahead with endless puffery about AI and that “the hype and chatter around GenAI will be very different than the demonstrable facts about its usefulness.” I was right.

However, in that same piece I also postulated something somewhat contradictory:

“AI is a marathon, not a hackathon. For those who understand that, 2024 will be another year of big advancements in AI tech across the Media Universe. Ultimately, the real value of GenAI in Media will be less sexy (or dangerous) than what conventional wisdom sells us.”

The irony: I still believe that the propaganda about AI is entirely overblown, due to an epic lack of knowledge among those paid to value AI businesses as well as those too afraid of the tech to use it; and I believe just as strongly that AI is an enormously powerful technology, the value of which we have not even started to realize.

Last week, I contributed to a piece on the current state of AI in video production.

"So much energy in conversations about AI in entertainment focuses too much on 'job replacement' and not enough on 'job enhancement.' Creators well-trained in AI prompts can expand their output exponentially and empower themselves and their clients/platforms without increasing costs."

In each era, every new tech is met by a combination of fear and excitement, hyperbole and dread. The truth usually lands somewhere between the two extremes - yes, some jobs will be lost to AI; and all our lives will be somewhat improved by it. But in the end, the vast majority of changes made by AI will be far less draconian or miraculous than the current crazy climate indicates - and the effects of AI on our society will depend entirely on how well we, the humans of earth, manage it. Ultimately, my main theory on the evolution of AI is that its greatest value will be both entirely pervasive and enormously unsexy.

For nearly everyone reading this, the most ubiquitous application of artificial intelligence will be addressing our most universally pernicious problem: The storage, sharing, distribution, and management of information and intellectual property.

Before I prove this point, let me offer some context on our landscape and the scope of our shared problem…