A RECESSION SURVIVAL GUIDE

Do More Now, Fear Less Later

Happy Monday Peaceniks. Ready for a Recession?

A dirty secret of mine: I’ve come out of the last three recessions better than how I entered them. How? Three words: Preparation, Preparation, Preparation.

The first rule of preparing for a recession is to always be prepared for a recession. The best way to do that is to stay tuned to key market indicators, remain flexible, and always be thinking a year ahead.

Right now, CEO confidence, home sales, market fluctuations, and rampant uncertainty, all indicate increased risk of recession this year. During and after the last four recessions, more than 5,000 US companies “fared very badly,” according to Harvard Business review, “going bankrupt, going private, or getting acquired.”

Conversely, a study by Bain found that during and after the Great Recession, “10% of companies studied didn’t merely survive; their earnings climbed steadily throughout the downturn and continued to rise afterward.”

“The difference-maker was preparation. Among the companies that stagnated in the aftermath of the Great Recession, few made contingency plans or thought through alternative scenarios.

When the downturn hit, they switched to survival mode, making deep cuts and reacting defensively. Many of the companies that merely limp through a recession are slower to recover and never really catch up.”

- Harvard Business Review, How to Survive a Recession & Thrive Afterward

Prior to the recessions in 2000, 2004, and 2008, I was prepared. In each case, I was running a business. In each case, the research I do as a normal course of my day began to blink red in similar ways as today. In 2000, I sold my business and leapt to a “safe” corporate job, just months before the full recession tanked Media. In 2004, I advised my company to keep our powder dry for times ahead. My boss never forgot that. It paid off in droves — for the business I was running and for my career. In 2008, I was running one business and led the acquisition of another. I had to simultaneously (and substantially) downsize and rebuild. “Never let a crisis go to waste” became our mantra — we integrated the new business and took the opportunity to reorganize both businesses to run more efficiently for the years ahead.

“In early 2000, a five-year-old online bookseller called Amazon.com sold $672 million in convertible bonds to shore up its financial position. One month later, the dot-com bubble burst. Meanwhile, more than half of all digital start-ups went out of business over the next few years — including lots of Amazon’s then-rivals in e-commerce.”

- Harvard Business Review, How to Survive a Recession and Thrive Afterward

The last recession was sparked by COVID-19. There was no way to see it coming. But in the months leading up to that, my daily doses of data told me something else — the Media industry was heading straight for a brick wall. As I saw the Media herd stampeding faster towards a crash, in the months prior to the pandemic, I decided to launch a new business and a new brand. My strategy was simple: Post something additive to LinkedIn every day. Repeat. Use LinkedIn as my storefront and marketing platform. Repeat. Offer insight, analysis, and specific, actionable advice. Repeat.

As horrific as this will sound, my business flourished during the pandemic and the economic woes that followed. It’s accelerated even faster since. Why? Three words: Preparation, Preparation, Preparation. In that context, I offer you my…